Dr Matthew Holden
Lecturer and ARC DECRA Fellow
School of Mathematics and Physics
Deputy Director – Community
Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science
Researcher biography
Dr Matthew Holden is a theoretical ecologist and applied mathematician using dynamic models and decision theory to improve conservation planning. He is especially interested in determining the most cost-effective management actions when conservation benefits depend on how humans modify their behaviour in response to policy. Some of his projects include: determining the importance of economic market information for protecting poached wildlife; quantifying the value of urban nature reserves as leverage to support future conservation projects; and developing optimal monitoring strategies for invasive and threatened species.
Position: Lecturer and DECRA Fellow
Google Scholar View my profile
Publications
Journal Articles
Holden, Matthew H., Plagányi, Eva E., Fulton, Elizabeth A., Campbell, Alexander B., Janes, Rachel, Lovett, Robyn A., Wickens, Montana, Adams, Matthew P., Botelho, Larissa Lubiana, Dichmont, Catherine M., Erm, Philip, Helmstedt, Kate J., Heneghan, Ryan F., Mendiolar, Manuela, Richardson, Anthony J., Rogers, Jacob G. D., Saunders, Kate and Timms, Liam (2024). Cost–benefit analysis of ecosystem modeling to support fisheries management. Journal of Fish Biology. doi: 10.1111/jfb.15741
Hudgins, Emma J., Hanson, Jeffrey O., MacQuarrie, Chris J. K., Yemshanov, Denys, Baker, Christopher M., Chadès, Iadine, Holden, Matthew H., McDonald‐Madden, Eve and Bennett, Joseph R. (2024). Spread management priorities to limit emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis) impacts on United States street trees. Conservation Science and Practice, 6 (3) e13087. doi: 10.1111/csp2.13087
Erm, Philip, Balmford, Andrew, Krueck, Nils C., Takashina, Nao and Holden, Matthew H. (2024). Marine protected areas can benefit biodiversity even when bycatch species only partially overlap fisheries. Journal of Applied Ecology, 61 (4), 621-632. doi: 10.1111/1365-2664.14595
Rogers, Andrew M., Yong, Russell Q.‐Y. and Holden, Matthew H. (2024). The house of a thousand species: the untapped potential of comprehensive biodiversity censuses of urban properties. Ecology, 105 (2) e4225, 1-7. doi: 10.1002/ecy.4225
Timms, Liam and Holden, Matthew H. (2024). Optimizing protected area expansion and enforcement to conserve exploited species. Biological Conservation, 290 110463, 110463. doi: 10.1016/j.biocon.2024.110463
Filar, Jerzy A., Holden, Matthew H., Mendiolar, Manuela and Streipert, Sabrina H. (2023). Overcoming the impossibility of age-balanced harvest. Mathematical Biosciences, 367 109111, 109111. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2023.109111
Peter, Soni Maria Jacob, Blomberg, Simone P., Holden, Matthew H., Hoffman, Louwrens C. and Tibbetts, Ian R. (2023). Is mushy tuna syndrome a growing problem for the tuna industry?. Foods, 12 (19) 3590, 1-11. doi: 10.3390/foods12193590
Erm, Philip, Balmford, Andrew and Holden, Matthew H. (2023). The biodiversity benefits of marine protected areas in well-regulated fisheries. Biological Conservation, 284 110049, 1-9. doi: 10.1016/j.biocon.2023.110049
Castonguay, Adam C., Polasky, Stephen, Holden, Matthew H., Herrero, Mario, Chang, Jinfeng, Mason-D’Croz, Daniel, Godde, Cecile, Lee, Katie, Bryan, Brett A., Gerber, James, Game, Edward T. and McDonald-Madden, Eve (2023). MOO-GAPS: A multi-objective optimization model for global animal production and sustainability. Journal of Cleaner Production, 396 136440, 1-13. doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.136440
Castonguay, Adam C., Polasky, Stephen, H. Holden, Matthew, Herrero, Mario, Mason-D’Croz, Daniel, Godde, Cecile, Chang, Jinfeng, Gerber, James, Witt, G. Bradd, Game, Edward T., A. Bryan, Brett, Wintle, Brendan, Lee, Katie, Bal, Payal and McDonald-Madden, Eve (2023). Navigating sustainability trade-offs in global beef production. Nature Sustainability, 6 (3), 284-294. doi: 10.1038/s41893-022-01017-0
Plein, Michaela, O'Brien, Katherine R., Holden, Matthew H., Adams, Matthew P., Baker, Christopher M., Bean, Nigel G., Sisson, Scott A., Bode, Michael, Mengersen, Kerrie L. and McDonald‐Madden, Eve (2022). Modeling total predation to avoid perverse outcomes from cat control in a data‐poor island ecosystem. Conservation Biology, 36 (5) e13916. doi: 10.1111/cobi.13916
Baker, Christopher M., Campbell, Patricia T., Chades, Iadine, Dean, Angela J., Hester, Susan M., Holden, Matthew H., McCaw, James M., McVernon, Jodie, Moss, Robert, Shearer, Freya M. and Possingham, Hugh P. (2022). From climate change to pandemics: decision science can help scientists have impact. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, 10 792749. doi: 10.3389/fevo.2022.792749
O’Bryan, Christopher J., Patton, Nicholas R., Hone, Jim, Lewis, Jesse S., Berdejo‐Espinola, Violeta, Risch, Derek R., Holden, Matthew H. and McDonald‐Madden, Eve (2021). Invasive wild pigs (Sus scrofa) as a human‐mediated source of soil carbon emissions: Uncertainties and future directions. Global Change Biology, 28 (3), e1-e3. doi: 10.1111/gcb.15992
O’Bryan, Christopher J., Patton, Nicholas R., Hone, Jim, Lewis, Jesse S., Berdejo‐Espinola, Violeta, Risch, Derek R., Holden, Matthew H. and McDonald‐Madden, Eve (2021). Unrecognized threat to global soil carbon by a widespread invasive species. Global Change Biology, 28 (3) gcb.15769, 1-6. doi: 10.1111/gcb.15769
Holden, Matthew H. and Lockyer, Jakeb (2021). Poacher-population dynamics when legal trade of naturally deceased organisms funds anti-poaching enforcement. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 517 110618, 1-10. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2021.110618
Holden, Matthew H., Yen, Jian D. L., Briscoe, Natalie J., Lahoz‐Monfort, José J., Salguero‐Gómez, Roberto, Vesk, Peter A. and Guillera‐Arroita, Gurutzeta (2020). Assessing the accuracy of density‐independent demographic models for predicting species ranges. Ecography, 44 (3), 345-357. doi: 10.1111/ecog.05250
O'Bryan, Christopher J., Allan, James R., Holden, Matthew, Sanderson, Christopher, Venter, Oscar, Di Marco, Moreno, McDonald-Madden, Eve and Watson, James E.M. (2020). Intense human pressure is widespread across terrestrial vertebrate ranges. Global Ecology and Conservation, 21 e00882, e00882. doi: 10.1016/j.gecco.2019.e00882
Adams, Matthew P., Sisson, Scott A., Helmstedt, Kate J., Baker, Christopher M., Michaela Plein, Holden, Matthew H., Holloway, Jacinta, Mengersen, Kerrie L. and McDonald-Madden, Eve (2020). Informing management decisions for ecological networks, using dynamic models calibrated to noisy time-series data. Ecology Letters, 23 (4) ele.13465, 607-619. doi: 10.1111/ele.13465
Briscoe, Natalie J., Elith, Jane, Salguero‐Gómez, Roberto, Lahoz‐Monfort, José J., Camac, James S., Giljohann, Katherine M., Holden, Matthew H., Hradsky, Bronwyn A., Kearney, Michael R., McMahon, Sean M., Phillips, Ben L., Regan, Tracey J., Rhodes, Jonathan R., Vesk, Peter A., Wintle, Brendan A., Yen, Jian D.L. and Guillera‐Arroita, Gurutzeta (2019). Forecasting species range dynamics with process‐explicit models: matching methods to applications. Ecology Letters, 22 (11) ele.13348, 1940-1956. doi: 10.1111/ele.13348
Mills, Morena, Bode, Michael, Mascia, Michael B., Weeks, Rebecca, Gelcich, Stefan, Dudley, Nigel, Govan, Hugh, Archibald, Carla L., Romero-de-Diego, Cristina, Holden, Matthew, Biggs, Duan, Glew, Louise, Naidoo, Robin and Possingham, Hugh P. (2019). How conservation initiatives go to scale. Nature Sustainability, 2 (10), 935-940. doi: 10.1038/s41893-019-0384-1
Holden, Matthew H., Lee, Sharon and Yang, Wen-Hsi (2019). Foreword to the Special Issue on Natural Resource Mathematics. Environmental Modeling and Assessment, 24 (4), 365-367. doi: 10.1007/s10666-019-09677-7
Derkley, Tessa, Biggs, Duan, Holden, Matthew and Phillips, Clive (2019). A framework to evaluate animal welfare implications of policies on rhino horn trade. Biological Conservation, 235, 236-249. doi: 10.1016/j.biocon.2019.05.004
O'Bryan, Christopher J., Holden, Matthew H. and Watson, James E.M. (2019). The mesoscavenger release hypothesis and implications for ecosystem and human well‐being. Ecology Letters, 22 (9) ele.13288, 1340-1348. doi: 10.1111/ele.13288
Tulloch, Ayesha I. T., Auerbach, Nancy, Avery-Gomm, Stephanie, Dickman, Chris R., Fisher, Diana O., Grantham, Hedley, Holden, Matthew H., Lavery, Tyrone H., Leseberg, Nicholas P., O’Connor, James, Roberson, Leslie, Smyth, Anita K., Stone, Zoe, Tulloch, Vivitskaia, Turak, Eren, Watson, James E. M. and Wardle, Glenda M. (2019). Reply to ‘Consider species specialism when publishing datasets’ and ‘Decision trees for data publishing may exacerbate conservation conflict’. Nature Ecology and Evolution, 3 (3), 320-321. doi: 10.1038/s41559-019-0805-6
Holden, Matthew H., Biggs, Duan, Brink, Henry, Bal, Payal, Rhodes, Jonathan and McDonald-Madden, Eve (2018). Increase anti-poaching law-enforcement or reduce demand for wildlife products?: a framework to guide strategic conservation investments. Conservation Letters, 12 (3) e12618, e12618. doi: 10.1111/conl.12618
Braczkowski, Alexander, Holden, Matthew H., O'Bryan, Christopher, Choi, Chi-Yeung, Gan, Xiaojing, Beesley, Nicholas, Gao, Yufang, Allan, James, Tyrrell, Peter, Stiles, Daniel, Brehony, Peadar, Meney, Revocatus, Brink, Henry, Takashina, Nao, Lin, Ming-Ching, Lin, Hsien-Yung, Rust, Niki, Salmo, Severino G., Watson, James Em, Kahumbu, Paula, Maron, Martine, Possingham, Hugh P. and Biggs, Duan (2018). Reach and messages of the world's largest ivory burn. Conservation Biology, 32 (4), 765-773. doi: 10.1111/cobi.13097
Tulloch, Ayesha I. T., Auerbach, Nancy, Avery-Gomm, Stephanie, Bayraktarov, Elisa, Butt, Nathalie, Dickman, Chris R., Ehmke, Glenn, Fisher, Diana O., Grantham, Hedley, Holden, Matthew H., Lavery, Tyrone H., Leseberg, Nicholas P., Nicholls, Miles, O'Connor, James, Roberson, Leslie, Smyth, Anita K., Stone, Zoe, Tulloch, Vivitskaia, Turak, Eren, Wardle, Glenda M. and Watson, James E. M. (2018). A decision tree for assessing the risks and benefits of publishing biodiversity data. Nature Ecology and Evolution, 2 (8), 1209-1217. doi: 10.1038/s41559-018-0608-1
Baker, Christopher M., Holden, Matthew H., Plein, Michaela, McCarthy, Michael A. and Possingham, Hugh P. (2018). Informing network management using fuzzy cognitive maps. Biological Conservation, 224, 122-128. doi: 10.1016/j.biocon.2018.05.031
Biggs, Duan, Smith, Robert J., Adams, Vanessa M., Brink, Henry, Cook, Carly N., Cooney, Rosie, Holden, Matthew H., Maron, Martine, Phelps, Jacob, Possingham, Hugh P., Redford, Kent H., Scholes, Robert J., Sutherland, William J., Underwood, Fiona M. and Milner-Gulland, E. J. (2018). Ivory crisis: role of bioprinting technology (Response). Science, 360 (6386), 277-278. doi: 10.1126/science.aat1596
McGowan, Jennifer, Bode, Michael, Holden, Matthew H., Davis, Katrina, Krueck, Nils C., Beger, Maria, Yates, Katherine L. and Possingham, Hugh P. (2018). Ocean zoning within a sparing versus sharing framework. Theoretical Ecology, 11 (2), 245-254. doi: 10.1007/s12080-017-0364-x
Biggs, Duan, Holden, Matthew H., Braczkowski, Alex, Cook, Carly N., Milner-Gulland, E. J., Phelps, Jacob, Scholes, Robert J., Smith, Robert J., Underwood, Fiona M., Adams, Vanessa M., Allan, James, Brink, H., Cooney, R., Gao, Y., Hutton, J., Macdonald-Madden, Eve, Maron, Martine, Redford, Kent H., Sutherland, William J. and Possingham, Hugh P. (2017). Breaking the deadlock on ivory. Science, 358 (6369), 1378-1381. doi: 10.1126/science.aan5215
Law, Elizabeth A., Ferraro, Paul J., Arcese, Peter, Bryan, Brett A., Davis, Katrina, Gordon, Ascelin, Holden, Matthew H., Iacona, Gwenllian, Marcos Martinez, Raymundo, McAlpine, Clive A., Rhodes, Jonathan R., Sze, Jocelyne S. and Wilson, Kerrie A. (2017). Projecting the performance of conservation interventions. Biological Conservation, 215, 142-151. doi: 10.1016/j.biocon.2017.08.029
Holden, Matthew H. and McDonald-Madden, Eve (2017). Conservation from the grave: human burials to fund the conservation of threatened species. Conservation Letters, 11 (1) e12421, e12421. doi: 10.1111/conl.12421
Holden, Matthew H. and McDonald-Madden, Eve (2017). High prices for rare species can drive large populations extinct: the anthropogenic Allee effect revisited. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 429, 170-180. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2017.06.019
Holden, Matthew H., Butt, Nathalie, Chauvenet, Alienor, Plein, Michaela, Stringer, Martin and Chades, Iadine (2017). Academic conferences urgently need environmental policies. Nature Ecology and Evolution, 1 (9), 1211-1212. doi: 10.1038/s41559-017-0296-2
Holden, Matthew H. and Ellner, Stephen P. (2016). Human judgment vs quantitative models for the management of ecological resources. Ecological Applications, 26 (5), 1553-1565. doi: 10.1890/15-1295
Biggs, Duan, Holden, Matthew H., Braczkowski, Alexander R. and Possingham, Hugh P. (2016). Elephant poaching: track the impact of Kenya's ivory burn. Nature, 534 (7606), 179-179. doi: 10.1038/534179a
Holden, Matthew H., Nyrop, Jan P. and Ellner, Stephen P. (2016). The economic benefit of time-varying surveillance effort for invasive species management. Journal of Applied Ecology, 53 (3), 712-721. doi: 10.1111/1365-2664.12617
Holden, Matthew H. and Conrad, Jon M. (2015). Optimal escapement in stage-structured fisheries with environmental stochasticity. Mathematical Biosciences, 269, 76-85. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2015.08.021
Low, Candace, Ellner, Stephen P. and Holden, Matthew H. (2013). Optimal control and cold war dynamics between plant and herbivore. American Naturalist, 182 (2), E25-E39. doi: 10.1086/670810
Holden, Matthew H., Ellner, Stephen P., Lee, Doo-Hyung, Nyrop, Jan P. and Sanderson, John P. (2012). Designing an effective trap cropping strategy: the effects of attraction, retention and plant spatial distribution. Journal of Applied Ecology, 49 (3), 715-722. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2012.02137.x
Conference Paper
Mendiolar, Manuela, Filar, Jerzy A., O'Neill, Michael F., Martin, Tyson, Teixeira, Daniella, Webley, James and Holden, Matthew (2023). Estimating recreational catch. 25th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Darwin, NT Australia, 9 to 14 July 2023. Canberra, ACT Australia: Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand. doi: 10.36334/modsim.2023.mendiolar
Newspaper Articles
Research Reports
O'Neill, M. F., Lovett, R., Bessell-Browne, P., Streipert, S., Leigh, G., Campbell, A., Northrop, A., Wortmann, J., Helidoniotis, F., Yang, W. H., Holden, M. and French, S. (2020). Custom training and technical support for the fishery stock assessment software ‘stock synthesis’. Brisbane, QLD, Australia: Department of Agriculture and Fisheries, Queensland.
Hutton, Trevor, O’Neill, Michael, Leigh, George, Holden, Matt and Deng, Roy (2019). Harvest strategies for the Torres Strait Finfish fishery. Canberra, ACT, Australia: Australian Government Australian Fisheries Management Authority.
Data Collections
Rhodes, Jonathan and Holden, Matthew (2020). Data for "Assessing Monitoring Program Design Options for Koalas in South East Queensland". The University of Queensland. (Dataset) doi: 10.14264/7288e73
Holden, Matthew H (2016). Human judgment vs. quantitative models for the management of ecological resources. Dryad Digital Repository. (Dataset)